Regional features of fertility in the modern world. world population

Introduction

1. Fertility as a determining factor in the current demographic situation

2. Increasing the birth rate: how to increase the effect of government measures

Conclusion

Bibliography

Introduction

The relevance of research. Low fertility in our country is not a new problem. And its causes are only to a small extent connected with the difficulties of the socio-economic development of our country in recent years. The birth rate in Russia has been declining for more than 100 years. In the first half of the XX century. in parallel with the birth rate, the death rate also decreased, so the reduction in the number of children in Russian families for a long time remained imperceptible. But in the second half of the century, the decline in mortality slowed down and the problem of having few children began to manifest itself more and more clearly.

The relationship between the number of children in a family and the standard of living is very complex. It may seem like a paradox, but the better people live, the fewer children they want to have on average. This correlation has been manifested for a long time and universally in all countries of the world, regardless of the social system, geographical location, race, nationality, and so on. It was noted by the English economist Adam Smith and Karl Marx.

In general, the decline in the birth rate in Russia is in line with the general decline in the birth rate in all industrialized and urbanized countries, and, as a rule, Russia was ahead of most of them in this decline and is now among the industrialized countries with the lowest number of children in the family.

Thus, purpose of our study is the birth rate in Russia.

Based on the goal, determined tasks:

To characterize the birth rate as a determining factor of the modern demographic situation;

Identify effective government measures to increase the birth rate.

The work used various scientific and educational literature on fertility issues. Various publications in periodicals and on Internet sites are also of interest.

1. Fertility as a determining factor in the current demographic situation

The main determining factor in the current demographic situation is the birth rate, which has fallen in our country to the lowest level in the world. The total fertility rate (the number of children born on average to one woman of a conditional generation in her entire life) amounted to only 1,230 children in 1997, while only for simple reproduction, i.e. one in which the population does not grow, but also does not decrease, the required average number of births per woman in her entire life, regardless of marital status, is 2.1 children, while per marriage - 2.6 children.

At the same time, some part of marriages always remains childless throughout life, and some is limited to the birth of only one child. To compensate for having one child, which has already become widespread among Russian families, especially in large cities, a significant proportion of marriages with three or more children is required. According to the calculations of specialists published in 1987, the distribution of families in society by the number of children born, corresponding to the critical value of the birth rate of 2.6 children per marriage, is as follows: 4% of families are childless, 10% have given birth to only one child, 35% - two children, three children - also 35%, 14% - four and 2% - five or more. From this it follows that just to maintain the simple reproduction of the population, it is necessary that families with three or more children make up more than half of the total number of families. If society recognizes the desirability of Russia's population growth over the foreseeable future, then the proportion of families with three or more children should naturally be higher. Therefore, the target reference point for our family and demographic policy should be a family with 3-4 children. Meanwhile, according to statistics, in particular according to the data of the 5% All-Russian Population Census of 1994, only 12.5% ​​of the young women aged 18 to 30 who were surveyed named three or more children as their desired number.

Studies of fertility factors in our country and in many other countries throughout the 20th century. showed that the number of children does not depend on random circumstances, but is largely the result of people making conscious decisions, implementing their life plans, under the influence of social norms and economic conditions, which, however, do not act automatically, but are refracted through human will, choice, through psychology, culture of people. Research shows that reproductive desires and plans (or in other words, reproductive attitudes) are formed at an early age and are very stable throughout a person's life. The main indicators of people's reproductive attitudes are two: the average desired and average expected (planned) number of children.

The All-Russian micro-census of the population of 1994 showed that, on average, married women would like to have (with the most favorable conditions) 2.03 children, but in reality they are going to give birth to 1.90. These figures alone characterize the acuteness of the demographic situation in Russia. The negligible difference between the average desired and planned number of children in a marriage, only 0.13 children, indicates that even in today's really difficult life circumstances, most Russian families have as many children as they want. Consequently, the problem of mass Russian small families is not at all in the realities of today's our life, as some of our politicians believe, but in the reduction of the very need of most families to have children.

The main causes of mass small families lie in the historical changes in the role of the family in society and the functions of children in the family. In past agrarian societies, the family was a production unit, the relations between family members were largely determined by production factors. Children were important for parents as workers, helpers in the household, his heirs, warriors-defenders of the household. A large number of children contributed to the well-being of the family, the growth of the authority of parents in the community. The family also played an important mediating role between its members and society.

In 2002, the birth rate in Russia ensured the reproduction of the population by only 62%, but at the same time, Russia was no exception to the general rule. The birth rate was not sufficient for a simple replacement of the population in any of the industrialized countries, with the exception of the United States, in 15 European countries the net reproduction rate of the population was even lower than in Russia (Fig. 1).

Picture 1. Net reproduction rate of the 40 industrialized countries in 2002

birth rate demographic social program

The extremely low birth rate in Russia is associated with the massive spread of one-child families and, accordingly, with a very high proportion of firstborns in the total number of births.

In 2003, second births in Russia accounted for 31% of all births. Their share was lower than in Russia only in Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Romania and France.

At the opposite pole were such countries as Germany, Greece, the Czech Republic and Switzerland - over 37%.

Figure 2. Share of second births in the total number of births in 32 industrialized countries in 1960-2003, %

The situation with third births in Russia is the same as with second births: the lowest rate in the world in the 1970s and one of the lowest at the beginning of the 21st century. In 2003, the proportion of third births in Russia was less than 8%, with lower rates only in Ukraine, Belarus, and Bulgaria. At the same time in Ireland - 17.2%, in the USA - 16.8%. (Fig. 3).

The share of the fourth and subsequent children in Russia accounts for less than 4% of those born, this proportion is lower only in Belarus, Spain and Slovenia. There are countries where fourth and subsequent births account for 10-11% of all births (USA, Ireland, Finland, Slovakia). But in general, births of such high orders do not play a big role in shaping the overall birth rate in developed countries.

Figure 3. Share of third births in the total number of births in 32 industrialized countries in 1960-2003, %

If we combine third and subsequent births into one group, it turns out that their contribution may not be so small, exceeding one fifth and even a quarter of all births (Fig. 4). But in Russia, the contribution of this combined group is small, it is 11%, that is, approximately as much as fourth and subsequent births in the USA

The increase in the number of unregistered marriages and, consequently, out-of-wedlock births is a trend that is associated with the so-called "second demographic transition". In part, it reflects the absence of actual marriages, in part, only the refusal to register them. It cannot be argued that this trend, as well as its demographic and social consequences, are well studied and fully understood. But the fact that it cannot be considered a feature of Russia or any individual countries in general is beyond doubt; it has a universal character.

Figure 4 Share of third and subsequent births in the total number of births in 28 industrialized countries in 2002, %

On the contrary, such a feature of the Russian birth rate as the excessive use of induced abortion to regulate it sharply distinguishes Russia from most developed countries. Abortion, as a last resort for women to avoid unwanted births, is practiced in almost all of these countries. The prevalence of this measure, which is widely considered undesirable on moral, religious and medical grounds, in different countries not the same. But even taking into account this dissimilarity, Russia looks like a black sheep against the general background.

The low Russian birth rate does not explain anything in this sense. In most industrialized countries, the “contraceptive revolution” took place, which pushed abortion to the margins of birth control methods, and now there is no link between the birth rate and the prevalence of abortions (Fig. 5).

Figure 5 No relationship between birth rate and abortion rate. Total fertility rate (per 100 women) and abortions per 100 births in 24 countries, 2001

Although the number of abortions has recently been decreasing in our country, Russia has been and remains a country with an unacceptably high intensity of abortions. In 2003, there were 120 abortions for every 100 births. This is an all-time low level for Russia (in the 1960s - 1970s, the number of abortions here exceeded 200, including in 1964-1970 it was over 250 per 100 births), but, with the same as in Russia, birth rate, in Italy there are 24 abortions per hundred births, in Germany and Spain - 18.

In general, having for many decades one of the lowest birth rates in the world, Russia thus demonstrates the widest spread of the practice of intra-family regulation of childbearing. And all this time, the state, its healthcare system tried not to notice this and not meet the new needs of people. In essence, they blocked the “contraceptive revolution” through which the vast majority of developed countries went through, dooming millions of Russian women every year to the morally flawed path of artificial abortion, harmful to mental and physical health. The Russian pension system, its contemporary condition and perspectives development// ...

The decisive aspect of the entire demographic problem is the unequal population growth in different regions. But it is additionally complicated by the fact that demographic trends are not the same for different peoples.

There are some fluctuations in projected estimates of the total population of the Earth by 2025 and 2050. But even the estimated figures make one think seriously, especially if they are considered in a historical perspective.

In 1825, Thomas Malthus made final revisions to the manuscript of his book "An Essay on the Law of Population", which, having become a bestseller, first drew the attention of scientists and politicians to the demographic problem, while giving rise to a whole scientific school, there were approximately 1 billion inhabitants on the planet. Before this numerical mark, the population of the Earth went for almost 40 thousand years. However, within the next century, the world population doubled and reached 2 billion, and in another 50 years (from 1925 to 1976) it doubled again and reached the mark of 4 billion people. By 1990, the world's population had risen to 5.3 billion. And the total world population continues to grow, reaching 6 billion in 2000.

In the last third of the 20th century, the rate of annual population growth declined markedly, from a peak of 2.2% in 1963 to less than 1.4% in turn of the century. This happened because in many countries the birth rate has declined. Behind this circumstance is a decrease fertility rate- the number of children born during the life of one mother. In comparison with the 60s of the twentieth century and the beginning of the next, India has reduced this figure from 6 to 3.8 children per family, Indonesia and Brazil - from 6.4 to 2.9. In China, this trend looks even more impressive - from 6.2 to 2 children. for a family. Globally, between 1950 and 1996, the number of children per family fell from an average of 5 to less than 3.

Such changes are the result of growing prosperity in economically mature countries, reducing poverty and improving living standards in many developing countries that have embarked on the path of reform and industrialization. Among the latter are China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, where almost 45% of the world's population lives. At the same time, the transition of these and some other countries to a policy of birth control played a role.

However, the population of our planet will continue to grow. According to UN forecasts, by 2025 it can reach 9.4 billion people, in accordance with the most pessimistic scenario of the development of events, it will actually reach 8.5 billion, but it will not be less than the figure of 7.6 billion people.

According to the calculations of specialists and experts from the World Bank, the population of the Earth will be approximately 10-11 billion, but not more than 14.5 billion people by 2045, after which it will stabilize within these limits and will not grow further. In other words, if the forecasts and calculations of experts and specialists turn out to be correct, around this time there will be a global change in the birth rate or a great demographic shift.

In all pre-industrial types of socio-economic development, the economic function of the family took the form: the more children, the more workers, the higher the level of family well-being. Modernization processes, the transition to industrial, and even more so to post-industrial types of socio-economic development, have seriously changed all the social functions of the family. In terms of their economic component, the number of employees affects its well-being to a much lesser extent than education, qualifications and health. If spouses in a paired family have two children, then there is no extended reproduction. The parents only restored themselves, which means there is no population growth. In order to ensure an expanded reproduction of the population, each family should have 2.65 children, which is real life means 5 children for two families. Global Fertility Change or Great Demographic Shift which takes place in the middle XXI century, will mean the stabilization of the birth rate at the level of one, less often two children in the family. Thus, the population of our planet will stabilize at the level of those numerical values ​​that were named above. The whole global nature of the demographic problem lies in the fact that for another 40-50 years humanity will live in conditions of growth in its population, which means an increase in pressure on the environment.

The essence of the modern demographic problem lies in the growth of the world's population in overwhelming volumes due to developing countries: 95% of all growth until 2025 will occur in these regions of the world. In 1990 - 1995, the annual average increase in the world's population was 1.7%, and since 1996 even less - 1.6%. If for Europe the component of this average was 0.22%, and at the beginning XXI century - 0.2%, then for Africa today it is 3%. In 1950 Africa's population was half that of Europe. In 1985, the populations of Africa and Europe equaled, reaching 480 million on each continent. In 2025, according to the forecast, three times more people will live in Africa than in Europe: 1 billion 580 million against 512 million.

The birth rate in agrarian societies is usually very high, but so is the death rate, especially for children (out of 1,000 newborns, 200 to 400 die in the first year of life). In pre-industrial societies, this is why early marriages are widely practiced, and spouses tend to have many children: even if some children die in infancy, each survivor will still increase the family's workforce. From this it is easy to imagine what happens to the population of an agrarian society when, due to advances in public health, mortality decreases, as happened in Europe in XIX century.

Modern population explosionis mainly the result of the development of medicine and health care in industrial and post-industrial countries: the use of immunization and antibiotics. Looking back at the experience of Europe XIX century, it can be argued that population explosion could well have been predicted. Yesterday's, quite natural desire to reduce infant mortality in developing countries, the provision of extensive humanitarian assistance to this end today has the unintended result of population growth.

Today, the world's poorest continent has a population of 650 million, but in 2025 it will reach 1,580 million. In China, despite the strict government programs birth control, by 2025 it will amount to 1.5 billion people. The population of India is growing even faster, which already today exceeds the one billion mark, and by 2025 will surpass the level of China, and then to the very short time reach two billion.

But apart from the recognized "demographic giants" of an unprecedentedly high population in the third decade XXI century reached other countries: Pakistan - 267 million, Brazil - 245 million, Mexico - 150 million, Iran - 125 million people.

However, it is also an indisputable fact that while the population explosion and depletion of resources are the biggest problem in developing regions, many developed countries are facing the opposite trend - sluggish or even negative population growth. In these countries, which have achieved a high standard of living and quality of medical care, the mortality rate is very low. In order for the population to even be kept at the current level, the fertility rate should be 2.1. UN data show that, starting from the 60s of the twentieth century, there has been a sharp decrease in the numerical value of this indicator: in Italy, for example, from 2.5 in the 60s. to 1.5 at the turn of the century, and in Spain from 2.2 to 1.7, respectively.

Urban, urbanized life in developed countries, namely, where the vast majority of their population lives, attracts the young, the most energetic and ambitious, whose plans do not include a large number of children. In addition, the social position of women in these countries has changed radically, and new opportunities are opening up before them, which have little or no connection with traditional family values. Secondly, women in developed countries have gained wide access to higher education which shapes their subsequent desire for a professional career. And, finally, even married couples postpone childbearing for more late deadline in the name of education and career growth, which also leads to a decrease in the number of children. It is these reasons that are superimposed on the impact of urbanization on the reproduction of the population in developed countries.

catches the eye and different influence age structure of the populationin developed and developing countries. The share of children under the age of 15 in most developing countries reached 40-50% by the turn of the century in most developing countries. As a result, this region of the world has the largest concentration of the young working-age labor force. Ensuring its employment is one of the most acute problems of the coming decades. At the same time, the growth of life expectancy and the share of the elderly in the structure of the population in developed countries on the pension, health and care systems. In other words, if in developed countries the authorities should take care, first of all, of the constantly growing millions of people over 65 years old, then the governments of the "third world" countries bear the heavy burden of caring for the younger generation, who is not even 15 years old.

If in the poorest African countries there are only 2-3% of people over 65 years old, then in developed and prosperous countries their share is much higher: in Norway - 16.4%, and in Sweden 18.3%. The process of population aging in economically advanced and wealthy countries is steadily growing, for which there are reasons. First, there is a steady decline in the total fertility rate. Secondly, the results of successes in the medical care of people in post-industrial countries are affecting. The societies of these states by 2010 on average by 15.3%, and in 2040 by 22% will consist of people over 65 years of age.

The policy of preventing population decline by attracting immigrants, for all its effectiveness in the United States, also carries quite certain threats. This, in particular, is evidenced by the experience of Europe. The main countries of this continent, primarily Germany and France, in the period from the 50s to the 70s actively attracted immigrants due to the extremely low wages, which won the price war with America. Since about 1970, the economic factor has played an ever smaller role. Due to the higher birth rate, the proportion of the "non-white" European population is growing rapidly. According to forecasts, by 2050, from 40 to 60% of the population of Europe will be people of non-autochthonous European origin. In general, in the world by this time there will be not only a relative, but also an absolute decrease in the number of peoples of the "first world", and the "white" population of the Earth will be approximately 1/10 of humanity.

Scientists in the West and the United States are sounding the alarm about this situation, seeing in it the threshold of a catastrophe. Western nations since 60-1990s, ceased to reproduce, their number is steadily decreasing. At the same time, in Asia (especially in Islamic countries, as well as in China and India), Latin America and Africa, the population is growing rapidly.

The potential danger of the current demographic situation lies not simply and not so much in the fact that in the next two decades the world's population will increase by almost 1.5 times, but in the fact that there will be a new billion hungry, a billion people who do not find employment in cities, one and a half billion disadvantaged people living below the "poverty line". Such a situation would be fraught with deep economic, social and political upheavals both within individual countries and in the international arena.

The exceptional complexity of solving population problems in modern world is that due to the inertia of demographic processes, the longer the solution of these problems is postponed, the larger they become.

What is the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia? In general, fertility refers to the number of babies born in a year. This indicator directly affects the dynamics of the population of certain countries. Where the birth rate is high, the natural increase is usually high; population growth is observed. This is especially true for the countries of Central Africa.

The article considers the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia and statistics by years.

Dynamics in the world

In general, the birth rate in the world is gradually decreasing, and there is hope that the population of the Earth will not exceed 9 billion people. Otherwise, it is fraught with the risk of environmental and humanitarian disasters. On this moment Basically, Africa preserves the traditions of large families. In China, India and a number of other Asian countries, the birth rate has declined, including to the level of simple population reproduction. However, the population is still growing due to inertia, since the main mortality falls on representatives of the older age group, the share of which (also due to inertia) still remains relatively small. But in the long run, population growth in most Asian countries is likely to stop. In South Korea, for example, it not only does not grow, but even falls rapidly.

It is not surprising, therefore, that the eyes of the UN are now directed precisely at the countries of Africa, where they still have many children per family, which causes a demographic boom. Therefore, the rise in world population will continue for the time being.

In some countries, the population is decreasing and the natural increase is negative. Among them is Russia. Although the number of inhabitants may not be decreasing due to the influx of migrants, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia over the years is rather negative.

Population of Russia

Russia is a multinational country with a large population. It is distributed unevenly across the territory. On average, the population density is quite low. In 2018, the number of inhabitants of the country amounted to 146 million 880 thousand 432 people. This corresponds to the 9th place in the world. - only 8.58 people / km 2. More than 68% of Russians live in the European territory of the country, which occupies only a fifth of the total territory. The European part is 9 times more densely populated than the Asian part. The population density in Moscow is extremely high - 4626 people/km2. The lowest level is recorded in Chukotka (0.07 people/km2).

The share of the urban population in the country is 80.9%. This largely determines the low birth rate. Currently, in many countries of the world, especially in Asia, there is a movement of residents from rural areas to cities, which leads to a decrease in the birth rate. The situation remains the same only in Africa.

In total, over 200 nationalities have been recorded in Russia. There is a large proportion of elderly people in our country.

Birth rate in the recent history of Russia

During the Soviet period, the birth rate in the country was significant and amounted to over 2.1 units. In cities, this figure was 1.9, and in rural areas - 3.0-3.1. So many children had (on average) Soviet families. Population reproduction requires a number of 2 or higher.

A sharp drop in the birth rate was observed in the 90s. The level was especially low in 1999, when the average birth rate was 1.17 people. Then there was a gradual growth, which stopped in 2015 and was replaced by a new wave of recession, associated, among other things, with the deterioration of living conditions in the country. Thus, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia is rather contradictory.

Natural population growth

Natural population growth refers to the difference between births and deaths. Until the 90s of the 20th century, it was positive, and then negative. He entered the neutral zone only in 2012. This was due to a simultaneous increase in the birth rate and a decrease in mortality. However, the mortality rate still remained significantly higher than under the USSR. What indicates the adverse impact of the market economy on the health of citizens.

Regional features

Birth rate, mortality and natural increase have different dynamics in different regions of the Russian Federation. In the Asian part of the country, the birth rate is higher and the death rate is lower. Accordingly, there is also a higher natural increase. Worst of all, according to all indicators, the situation is in the regions of the central part of the ETR. These regions are rightly called endangered. The death rate here reaches more than 16 people. per 1000 inhabitants per year. And the lowest values ​​are in the oil and gas producing regions of Western Siberia - only 5-8 people per 1000. The birth rate there is also not bad. The result is high natural growth.

Features of mortality in Russia

Unlike other countries, in Russia the main culprit of mortality (60% of deaths) is cardiovascular disease. Low income, poor lifestyle, poor state of medicine, ecology, drunkenness and smoking, poor quality of food and (probably) medicines, a large amount of stress (due to difficult and unpredictable living conditions), overload at work, etc. pour their jets into the common cauldron in which death is being prepared. The life expectancy of men in Russia is very low. This indicator is one of the worst in the world.

Life expectancy in our country is much lower than in a number of other countries, including developing ones. Even in Ukraine it is somewhat higher.

The dynamics of the birth rate in Russia in recent years

In recent years, there has been a clear deterioration in demographic indicators in the country. Some attribute this to the decrease in the number of women of childbearing age. However, it is more likely that the roots of the problem are not only in this. And indeed, if life gets worse and harder every year, then the enthusiasm for having new children will definitely not increase from this. Moreover, according to statistics, most of the poor in Russia are just members of families with children.

Wikipedia prudently ends its charts on more prosperous years, which is typical for this publication (to show that we are doing well). However, Rosstat data in recent years indicate the development of a downward trend in the birth rate in Russia.

Its decline began in 2016. Then it fell by 2.6% compared to the previous year. In 2017, this process accelerated dramatically. Compared to 2016, 11.3% fewer children were born in the country. Partially, this situation was associated with a natural decline in the number of women of childbearing age, but the socio-economic crisis also played a significant role.

2018 continued the same trend. So, in the first 8 months of this year, 5.2% fewer people were born in the country than in the same period of 2017.

Obviously, the total decline for all three past years is significant. In general, the birth rate in the world is also gradually declining, but the abnormally sharp decline in Russia may be due to social reasons.

A decrease in the indicator was noted in 83 subjects of the Russian Federation.

Mortality in Russia

Modern dynamics fertility and mortality are quite interrelated. The mortality rate of the population is even more related to the socio-economic well-being of the country. A feature of 2018 was the overlap of two trends:

• falling birth rate;
• increase in mortality.

All this led to 170 thousand people a year, and it has become a record for the last 10 years. True, the increase in mortality is small - only 15,000 people. This has more psychological than demographic significance. Why the country has a high mortality rate, we have already said. And the fact that it is growing (if this is not a random fluctuation) may indicate a further deterioration in the situation.

The excess of deaths over births was 1.2 times. However, in some individual regions the situation is much worse. So, in every third subject of Russia, the excess is 1.5-2 times.

At the same time, the birth rate is falling in 83 out of 85 subjects, and the death rate is growing in 54 out of 85. A decrease in the migration flow into the country by 1.5 times was also noted. As a result, for the first time since 2011, the country's population has actually decreased.

Expert opinion

According to the director of the analytical department of Loko-Invest, Kirill Tremasov, such a demographic situation can be considered dramatic. At the same time, he does not know what exactly is the reason for the decline in the birth rate. But he speaks more definitely about the increase in mortality. This, in his opinion, is the result of a decrease in the quality and availability of medical services.

Finally

Thus, the dynamics of the birth rate in Russia shows a sharp decline in the 90s of the 20th century and at the present time. Among the main reasons for this is the deterioration of the socio-economic situation in the country. The dynamics of fertility and are interconnected.

Peculiarities

demographic situation in Russian Federation

The demographic situation in Russia is characterized by complex and ambiguous processes in the development of the population. In terms of the number of inhabitants, the Russian Federation ranks seventh in the world after China, India, the United States, Indonesia, Brazil and Pakistan. By the beginning of the 21st century, Russia approached in a state of a steady process of depopulation, having one of the highest rates of natural population decline.

The main features of the current demographic situation in modern Russia are: a significant reduction in the population; low birth rate, mass distribution of a one-child family, which does not ensure the reproduction of the population; the continuing aging of the population, the change in the ratio between workers and pensioners, exacerbating the problems of pension provision; huge losses of the population from the supermortality of men, especially from accidents, poisoning and injuries; family crisis, high divorce rate; the dependence of the rate of population decline on the level of compensation for the natural loss of external migration; significant volumes of forced migration and illegal migration; reducing the volume of internal migration, reducing the mobility of the population.

The steady absolute decline in population that began in 1992 became threatening by the end of the decade. As a result of natural decline, the population of Russia for the period from 1994 to 2002 decreased by 7.7 million people. However, as a result of a positive migration increase, the population decline turned out to be much smaller and the population actually decreased by 4.9 million people, amounting to 143.1 million people at the beginning of 2003.

The population of Russia will continue to decline, on average by about 0.6-0.8 million people annually, and the size of the decline will be determined both by the difference between mortality and birth rate, and by the size of the migration gain. By 2010, the number of Russians will be reduced to about 138-139 million people. Over the years, according to UN forecasts, Bangladesh and Nigeria will bypass Russia in terms of population. Russia will move from 7th to 9th place in the world in terms of population.

The natural population decline as the main cause of depopulation in Russia is sustainable and long-term. In 1999-2002, the annual excess of deaths over births in the country as a whole was consistently about 1 million people (1.7-1.8 times). At the same time, the compensatory role of positive interstate migration growth in making up for losses in Russia's population has significantly decreased in recent years. If in 1994 the natural population decline was replaced by 93% by registered external migration, then in 1998 it was already by 41%, and in 2001-2002 - only by 8%.

Depopulation has affected almost all territories of the Russian Federation and almost all ethnic groups to varying degrees. The problem of low birth rates has become particularly acute. Decline in the birth rate is characteristic of many developed countries, but the Russian Federation is characterized by a uniquely low birth rate. Since the end of the 60s, the birth rate in Russia has fallen below the level necessary for the simple reproduction of the population. Although extensive factors led to an increase in the absolute number of births in 2000-2002, they practically did not change the birth rate.

In 2002 there were 1397.0 thousand children, which is 182.3 thousand more than in 1999. Encouraging, at first glance, the increase is due mainly to a temporary increase in the number of women in the most childbearing ages of 20-29 years.

At the same time, the total fertility rate does not exceed one hundred and thirty-one born per 100 women of reproductive age (15-49 years old). This is significantly below the level required for the numerical replacement of generations of parents by their children, or simple reproduction of the population.

The nature of the birth rate in the Russian Federation is determined by the massive spread of small families (1-2 children), as well as the late birth of the first child. The fall in the birth rate in Russia occurred in an unprecedentedly short demographic period of time.

The need for strict intra-family regulation of childbearing, the late birth of the first child by young spouses and the increase in the average age of the mother at the birth of children (2001-26.0 years, 1994 -24.7) have become an adequate response of the population to the impact of the economic situation. Against this background, there has been a noticeable rejuvenation of the age of onset of sexual life, the spread of premarital cohabitation without the intention to have children and unregistered marriages, as well as a noticeable increase in extramarital births. In 1995-2002 alone, the proportion of children born out of a registered marriage among all those born increased 1.5 times and reached almost 30%.

The severity of depopulation in the Russian Federation is formed not only due to low level birth rate, but above all due to the high mortality of the population, which is the most painful problem of the modern demographic development of Russia.

Since 1999, the overall mortality rate of the country's population began to grow again and amounted to 16.3 deaths per 1000 population in 2002 against 15.7 in 1994 and is currently the highest in Europe. Over the past 4 years, this figure has increased by 20%. The impact on mortality of such factors as the spread of alcoholism, smoking, and traffic accidents has increased. The number of deaths is increasing not only from chronic, but also from socially determined diseases.

The situation with mortality in the country is determined by the dynamics of those who died at working age. In 2002, the proportion of those who died of working age in the total number of those who died was 29%.

The problem of excessive mortality at working age is, first of all, the problem of male mortality, the level of which is 4 times higher than that of women. While in developed countries the mortality of men of working age is 2-4 times lower than in Russia.

The emerging trends in the field of natural and migratory movement of the population predetermine a further reduction in the country's population. According to the forecast of the State Statistics Committee of Russia, by 2016 the population of the country will decrease by 9.7 million people (or 6.7%) compared with the beginning of 2002 and will amount to 134.3 million people. A positive migration increase does not compensate for the natural decline in the population.

The current parameters of the population itself (age structure) and its reproduction are such that the population of Russia in the 21st century will continue to decline and in 5-6 decades, in the worst case, it can be reduced by about half.

The main strategic objectives of demographic policy:

Improving the health status of the population, increasing life expectancy, reducing preventable mortality of the population, especially men of working age;

Stimulation of the birth rate and strengthening of the family on the basis of improving the material well-being, quality and standard of living of families, social protection of families and material incentives for the birth of children;

Activation information-clarify

Under fertility demographic science understands the process of childbearing in the totality of people that make up a generation, or in the totality of generations - the population 1 .

To characterize the intensity of fertility, various indicators are used, the most common of which is the total fertility rate (CFR).

total fertility rate is the ratio of the number of live births during a calendar year to the average annual population.

For the convenience of comparing territories with different populations, as a rule, TFR is calculated per 1000 people and is measured in ppm (%o):

where N- the number of children born during this period; T - period (years); R is the population at the middle of the period.

The simplicity of calculating TFR and its convenience for comparison in different territories make this indicator the main characteristic of fertility.

According to the rating scale proposed in the 1960s. well-known Soviet demographers B. Ts. Urlanis and V. A. Borisov, TFR having values ​​of less than 16% o characterize the birth rate as low, in the range from 16 to 24 - medium, from 25 to 29 - above average, from 30 to 39 - high, and more than 40%o - very high. Over the past 50 years, due to the general decline in fertility rates both in Russia and in the world, in general, the above scale of assessment is already outdated and needs to be revised.

It should be noted that throughout the history of mankind, the birth rate of the population in the world has been steadily declining, although until the middle of the 18th century, under favorable conditions, it everywhere approached the physiological maximum - 50-60% per year. With the development of medicine, an increase in the cultural level and the involvement of women in social production, the birth rate began to gradually decline. At the beginning of the XX century. the average birth rate in the world was 40-45%o, in 1950-1955. - 37, and in the mid-1980s. - already 26% per year. Today, the average birth rate on Earth is 20% and continues to decline.

At the same time, the rate of decline in fertility in different regions and countries of the world varies significantly (Table 6.1). So, if in the whole world during the period from 1950 to 2015 TFR decreased from 37 to 20%o, then in India over the same period this indicator changed from 40 to 21, in China - from 36 to 12, Russia - from 31 to 13, Japan - from 28 to 8, Germany - from 26 to 8%.

OCD dynamics in 1970-2015 by regions of the world

Today, the maximum value of TFR is observed in the countries of Tropical Africa - in 2015 in 43 countries out of 55 it exceeded 30%o, and in such states as Burkina Faso, Gambia, Mali, Niger, Burundi, Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia, Central African Republic (CAR), Angola, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, TFR exceeds 40%. Among the countries of the world with the highest birth rates, East Timor (36%o), Afghanistan (35%), Yemen (33%) should be noted. In the Western Hemisphere, the maximum value of TFR no longer exceeds 30%o, and the highest rates are typical for such countries as Haiti (28), Bolivia (26), Guatemala (25) (Fig. 6.1).

If the highest TFR indicators are inherent in the least economically developed countries of the world, then the minimum values, on the contrary, are observed in the post-industrial countries of Europe and Asia. For most European countries, TFR is currently 10-12%o, and in countries such as Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, it does not exceed 8- 9% o. Similar birth rates are typical for some Asian countries, such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

However, the ROC does not provide a complete description of the situation with the birth rate, since its value is strongly influenced by the sex and age structure of the population. If the proportion of women of childbearing age differs significantly in the population groups for which TFR is calculated, this will inevitably affect the number of children born and, as a result, the values ​​of the coefficient. In this regard, in order to study the potential for childbearing - fertility, depending on reproductive

S Rice. 6.1. RFR by country, 2015, % of women's behavior, other indicators are used, which include:

• 1) special birth rate;
• 2) age-specific fertility rates;
• 3) total fertility rate.

Special birth rate(or fertility rate (fertility)) shows the number of children born per year, divided by the number of women of reproductive (childbearing age). Usually, when calculating the special fertility rate (SpecKR), the childbearing age of women is considered to be the age interval from 15 to 49 years (inclusive).

SpecialKR calculated per 1000 women of childbearing age using the following formula:

where N- the number of children born; W- the number of women of reproductive age.

OKR is associated with a special relationship as follows:

where k- proportion of women aged 15-49 in the entire population.

The value of SpecKR depends on the age structure of the female population of reproductive age. So, at the age of 15, the birth rate is close to zero, between 20 and 30 years it reaches a maximum and comes to naught by the age of 50. With a normal distribution by sex and age, the parameter k usually varies in different ethnosocial groups in the range from 20 to 30% of the total population. The ratio between SpecKR and OKR in each individual society is practically unchanged, which makes it possible to use SpecKR to analyze the intensity of the birth process.

Depending on the reproductive behavior determined by the prevailing social and cultural norms, traditions, public opinion, the age of the most intense fertility in women in different countries may vary. Thus, a more accurate measure of the birth rate is age-specific fertility rates, showing the average number of births per year per 1000 women of this age group. Over time, age-specific fertility rates can change, which is associated with a change in both the intensity of fertility in general and with a change in reproductive attitudes regarding the timing and number of births.

So, if in Russia in the middle of the XX century. most births were in age group 20-24 years old and the birth rate for this five-year group was 158 children per 1000 women, then in 2013 the maximum birth rate was in the age group 25-29 years old and amounted to 108 children per 1000 women (Fig. 6.2).

If you add up all age-specific fertility rates, you can get the average number of children born to one woman during her lifetime. This indicator of the intensity of the birth rate, which does not depend on the age composition of the female part of the population, is called total fertility rate (TFR).

Rice. 6.2.

1 - up to 20 years; 2 - 20-24; 3 - 25-29; 4 - 30-34; 5 - 35-39; 6 - 40-44; 7 - 45+

Like TFR, the global TFR has steadily declined over the last century. For different regions and countries of the world, the pace of this decline is not the same. So, if from 1975 to 2015 for the whole of mankind the TFR decreased by 40%, then in the countries of East Asia this indicator decreased by more than 2 times. At the same time, in Europe, the TFR, which already had a value of about two children per woman by the beginning of the period under review, decreased by only 20% over the next four decades. For individual countries, the difference in TFR dynamics over the past 60 years turned out to be even more significant (Table 6.2).

Table 6.2

TFR dynamics in 1960-2010 but to certain countries of the world

TFR is of great importance for understanding the direction of the population reproduction process.

Population reproduction in demographic science is understood as the constant renewal of generations of people as a result of the interaction of fertility and mortality occurring within the framework of historically defined social relations.

Since the ratio of girls and boys at birth is approximately the same for all the peoples of the Earth, then for the numerical replacement of the generation of parents, it is necessary that every woman give birth to at least two children during her life. Considering mortality in infancy and childhood, which differs markedly in different regions of the world, in order to ensure the regime of simple reproduction of the population, the value of the TFR should be more than two. The extent to which the TFR should be greater than two depends on the existing mortality rates in a given country (region). Today in European countries, in order to replace the generation leaving the fertile age (parents), the next generation (children) should be more numerous by 2-3%. And in the states of Tropical Africa, about 20-25% of the population dies before the moment when they enter the fertile age and can become parents themselves. Therefore, if in Europe, to ensure simple reproduction of the population, the TFR should be at least 2.04-2.06, then to ensure simple reproduction of the population in African countries, given the current level of child and adolescent mortality, this indicator should be at least 2.4-2.06. 2.5.

Like the ROC, today, at the beginning of the 21st century, the TFR has highest value in the states of Tropical Africa. In Burkina Faso, Niger, Somalia, Burundi, South Sudan, Angola, CAR, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, each woman on average gives birth to more than six children in her lifetime. Among other countries in the world, the highest rates of TFR are observed in East Timor (5.7) and Afghanistan (4.9) (Fig. 6.3).

The minimum TFR values ​​are typical for economically developed countries. In Europe, this figure does not exceed two today, amounting to 1.2 children per woman on average in countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Portugal. Similar figures are observed in a number of Asian countries, such as Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore.

Despite the change in the functions and forms of the institution of the family that has occurred in recent decades in many countries of the world, in most regions of the Earth, the birth rate still strongly depends on the proportion of the population that is married. Accordingly, when analyzing the birth rate, it is important to take into account its marital and extramarital components, as well as the family structure of the population. In this regard, in demographic statistics, great importance is given to such indicators as marriage, divorce, and household composition.

General marriage rates and divorce rates are calculated as the ratio of the number of concluded and terminated during the calendar year

g Rice. 6.3. TFR by country, 2015

yes marriages to the average annual population. In 2015, in terms of marriage and divorce rates, Russia is still quite different from European countries in a big way - we have 7.9 marriages and 4.2 divorces per 1,000 people per year.

Information for reflection

In European countries, marriage and divorce rates have changed dramatically over the past decades. If in the early 1960s in the countries of Western Europe per 1000 inhabitants annually I conclude an average of 7-8 marriages, and in the countries of Eastern Europe and the USA - 10-11, then at the beginning of the second decade of the XXI century. for most European countries, this figure dropped to 4-5. During the same period, the number of divorces per thousand inhabitants increased in European countries1 from 0.5-0.8 to 2.5-3. So, today in France the ratio of marriages and divorces per 1000 inhabitants is 3.7: 2; in Spain - 3.5: 2.2; in Sweden - 5.3: 2.5; in the UK it is 4.5:2.1. Today, in most European countries, the proportion of children born out of wedlock ranges from 30 to 50%.

The household- this is a group of people living in the same dwelling or part of it, jointly providing themselves with food and everything necessary for life, i.e. fully or partially pooling and spending their funds.

These people may be related by kinship or marriage, or not related, or both. A household may consist of one person who lives independently and provides himself with food and everything necessary for life. People without a fixed place of residence, the homeless, according to statistical reporting, are also considered households. It is the household, and not the family, that is today the main unit of statistical accounting in demographic and sociological studies, including population censuses.

So far, demographers and sociologists have not fully come to a consensus on the reasons for the existing regional differences in birth rates. It is believed that high birth rates are inherent in the so-called traditional type of population reproduction, which is characteristic of patriarchal societies in countries that have not yet entered the industrial phase of economic development. In such societies, where the majority of the population still lives in rural areas, the idea of ​​children as a potential source of labor force dominates, and a large number of children is seen as an "investment" in the family's future. High mortality, especially in infancy and childhood, and low life expectancy in general contribute to the realization at the subconscious level of the basic instinct of a person as a biological species to procreate. At the same time, the absence of a social security system leads to the fact that the large number of offspring is considered both as a kind of "social insurance" and the possibility of "pension security" in old age.

The birth rate is influenced by the availability and prevalence of contraceptives, as well as the social role of women, their place in the system of economic relations that dominate society. That is why the decline in fertility, which began in Europe two or three centuries ago and gradually spread to other regions of the world, is associated primarily with socio-economic changes in society. The socialization of women, which primarily implies their involvement in production activities, a decrease in the death rate, a general increase in the standard of living and, as a result, life expectancy, has led to a change in the reproductive behavior of the population, considered as a system of actions and relations that mediate the birth or refusal to give birth to a child.

At present, considering the territorial differences in the level of fertility in the countries of the world, one can notice that its value is inversely proportional to the level of income, which is the most important component of the standard of living of the population (Fig. 6.4). Thus, only 1 out of 56 countries in the world with a GDP per capita of more than 20 thousand. US dollars per year has a TFR of more than three 1 . At the same time, out of 56 countries of the world with more than three children per woman, 51 countries have an average annual income of less than $10,000 per person (2015).

Rice. 6.4.

It can be said that today the states with the minimum values ​​of GDP per capita have the maximum values ​​of the TFR, and vice versa - the countries with the highest standard of living, as a rule, have the minimum birth rates.

But not only socio-economic conditions affect fertility rates. It is known that the canons of the main world religions, and above all Christianity and Islam, encourage the birth rate and oppose the artificial limitation of the number of children in families, therefore, in areas where the influence of religion is stronger, as a rule, the birth rate is higher.

• See: Demographic Encyclopedic Dictionary. M.: Soviet Encyclopedia, 1985.S. 373. With the exception of the Catholic states of Southern Europe - Italy, Spain, Portugal, where divorces were officially prohibited until the end of the 1970s.
• See: All-Russian Population Census 2010. V. 6. Number and composition of households. URL: http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/perepis2010/croc/Documents/Vol6/methodologv.pdf.
• This is Equatorial Guinea, which has a purchasing power parity GDP of $23.2 thousand per capita (2013) and a TFR of 4.9 (2014).
• Considered at purchasing power parity (PPP).