management decisions
Fundamentals of the theory of generation of variants
In accordance with the problem statement, the sequence of decision-making procedures begins with a description and analysis of the problem situation. The objectives of the analysis of the problem situation are:
– determination of the existence of a problem, i.e. determining whether there is a real problem, or if it is imaginary,
- assessment of the novelty of the problem;
– determination of the causes of the problem;
– establishing relationships with other problems;
- assessment of the degree of completeness and reliability of information about the problem;
- determination of the solvability of the problem.
To successfully achieve these goals great importance has a logical sequence of description of the problem situation.
In the case of complete and reliable information, the achievement of the listed goals makes it possible to clearly formulate the essence of the problem and the complex of conditions that characterize it. This information is the starting point for the subsequent formulation of goals, restrictions and alternatives problem solving.
If there is uncertainty in the information, then it is necessary to formulate a system of measures to obtain and clarify the necessary information within the available time and resources. The division of the problem situation in the form of answers to seven questions makes it possible to identify what exactly is the incompleteness and unreliability of information.
As noted, in setting the decision-making problem in the presence of uncertainty, it is necessary, as a first step, to define the initial problem situation with a set of hypothetical situations (hypotheses, versions). The formation of a set of hypothetical situations is an informal creative process that requires special knowledge, broad erudition and extensive experience in the area under consideration. Therefore, highly qualified experts should be involved to formulate possible situations.
In many cases, the formulation of hypothetical situations is associated with an analysis of future events, the development of processes and phenomena, i.e. with the solution of the forecasting problem. As is known, the task of forecasting depending on the available information can be solved in three ways. The first of them assumes the existence of a formal model of the process, a phenomenon that adequately describes the course of events in time. Based on the model, the event is predicted. In the second method, there is no model of the phenomenon, but there are statistical data for some previous period of time. The processing of available data allows extrapolating for the future development of processes. Finally, in the third method, both the model and statistical data are absent, therefore, expert estimates are used, based on the ability of specialists to establish causal relationships based on existing knowledge and experience and thereby predict the possible course of events.
To obtain a general picture of the development of an event, such a form of peer review as writing a script is widely used at the first stage. The scenario makes it possible to identify characteristic events that can be analyzed in more detail by conducting an expert assessment in the form of a questionnaire and discussion.
When determining the set of hypothetical situations, it is necessary to observe the rule of completeness of a group of situations. A set of situations constitutes a complete group if it contains all possible situations, i.e. no other situations are possible. In many cases, the definition of all possible situations is practically not feasible due to the large uncertainty of information. In these cases, in order for the set of situations to constitute a complete group, it is necessary, along with the formulation of specific situations, to define one more situation: “other possible situations”. As the uncertainty decreases through the acquisition of new information, specific situations can be distinguished from this group.
The definition of a complete group of possible situations is necessary in order for the sum of the probabilities of occurrence of situations to be equal to one. The full group contains all possible situations, so the sum of the probabilities for these situations is equal to one.
Situation probabilities are characteristics of certainty from occurrence. There are two ways to determine the probabilities of a situation. The first of them uses statistical data on the frequency of occurrence of situations. On the basis of these data, the estimates of the probabilities of occurrence of situations are determined as the relative frequencies of situations
where R j is the probability of the situation s j , nj- the number of cases in which the situation appeared sj, n is the total number of cases.
If there are no statistical data on the occurrence of situations, then subjective probabilities are determined. They are numerical assessments of the reliability of situations, measured by the decision maker in a ratio scale, and express his opinion about the chances of these situations occurring. This opinion is based on the decision maker's understanding of objective causal relationships between situations and the conditions for their occurrence.
Subjective probabilities, despite the fact that they are measured by a person, i.e. subjectively, under certain assumptions, it has the properties of ordinary objective probabilities. Therefore, with them you can perform the usual operations, defined by the theory of probability. Consider the assumptions that subjective probabilities must satisfy.
Let there be a finite set of situations s = (s 1 , s 2 , ..., s n). Between situations, we define a binary likelihood ratio, which will be denoted by the symbol ³. Recording s i ³ s j means that the situation s i more plausible than the situation sj, i.e. more reliable, more likely to appear. Recording s i ~ s j means that both situations are equally plausible. The relation ³" is a union, i.e. the notation s i³" sj means that the situation s i, no less plausible than the situation sj. If we assume that all situations from the set s are comparable with each other in terms of likelihood, i.e. for any s i and sj or s i ³ s j, or s i ³ s j, or s i ³ s j, then the likelihood ratio is the ratio of the linear quasi-order.
Measuring the reliability of situations is the display of a set of situations on a numerical axis while maintaining the likelihood ratio. As a mapping function, we will consider the probability of situations P i = P(sj) (i = 1, 2, ..., n). In order for the probabilities to preserve the relationship between situations, it is necessary that
The arrow means that the condition s i ³ s j executed if and only if Р(s i) ³ P(s j). A probability distribution that satisfies condition (53) is said to be consistent with the likelihood ratio.
Regarding (53), the numerical function Р(s i) must satisfy the requirements for probabilities. So the likelihood ratio ³ along with the fact that it is a linear quasi-Poryatsky, it must satisfy additional conditions, which are formulated in the form of axioms of subjective probability. The practical measurement of subjective probabilities, which satisfies these axioms, is carried out by the method of direct assessment, with the additional requirement that the sum of the probabilities of a complete group of alternative situations be equal to one. The measurement is made in the scale of ratios on the segment of the numerical axis.
Solution generation
The formation of a set of alternative solutions is an informal creative procedure performed by the DPR and experts. In this procedure, calculations, theoretical and experimental studies. Generation of the initial set of solutions is the most important step in the decision-making process, the choice of a single optimal solution is made only from this set. In accordance with the concept of decision making, the formation of a set of decisions is necessary to assess their quality by comparison. Therefore, the optimality of the choice and, ultimately, the degree of achievement of the goals set depends on how fully the set of solutions is formulated.
Two types of solutions are possible. The first type consists of various options solutions. The second type is characterized by a difference in parameters, i.e. one solution is formulated, and variants are obtained due to various numerical data. As a rule, the number of fundamentally different solutions is small and amounts to a few, since it is practically impossible to formulate the number of otherwise original solutions. The number of solutions that differ only in the numerical values of the characteristics can theoretically be infinitely large. In practice, even in this case, the number of variants is finite, although possibly very large (for example, several tens of thousands).
The finiteness of the number of options is explained, firstly, by restrictions on the ranges of parameter variation, and, secondly, by the expediency of considering discrete values of parameters, due to the finite accuracy of their practical measurement. As a rule, the considered two types of solutions are combined in practical problems. For example, two or three fundamental decisions, and for each of them a set of calculated solutions is formed.
The formation of a set of solutions essentially begins with the definition of goals and constraints. The correctness and clarity of the formulation of goals and limitations determine the direction and content of decisions. Goals are an expression of the desired state, the result of an activity. Before the decision maker, individual or group, there is always some global goal of activity, usually formulated in general view and expressing the direction of activity. Under the conditions of a specific problem situation, the decision maker must formulate a specific set of goals, the implementation of which will contribute to the achievement of the global goal.
The set of possible goals can be divided into two classes: finite goals (finite, terminal), infinite goals (infinite).
Goals characterize a well-defined result, which should be obtained in time and space. For example, an annual plan for the social economic development of an industry, enterprise, or firm. These plans formulate what and how much should be received by the end of the year.
When formulating goals, the goals of higher-level systems and the goals of interacting systems should be taken into account. Such accounting is carried out on the basis of the study of regulatory documents (decrees, directives, orders, etc.) and consultations.
After determining the goals of making a decision, it is necessary to formulate a set of restrictions that characterize the mandatory conditions for achieving the goals. Constraints are the influence of external and internal factors, which must be taken into account in the decision-making problem. Systems approach requires taking into account the entire set of essential factors, therefore, when formulating restrictions, economic, technical, legal, political, ideological, psychological and other aspects of solving the problem should be considered. The most characteristic economic constraints are resources. Legal restrictions are applicable laws, ordinances, instructions and other regulations, the implementation of which is mandatory. For example, if a goal is formulated to increase the volume of output, then capital investments, opportunities technological processes, productivity of production personnel, provisions of labor legislation, etc.
A multidimensional analysis of possible limitations requires the involvement of a circle of experts to determine them. It is difficult for the decision maker himself to fully and competently complete the procedure for formulating restrictions. The importance of defining constraints for a decision problem is obvious. If any significant limitations are not taken into account, then this will immediately manifest itself in the implementation of decisions, which may lead either to the need to revise decision or delay its implementation.
A clear and complete formulation of goals and constraints provides the necessary conditions for the formation of a multitude of solutions. However, the goals and constraints do not unambiguously determine the requirements for the set of solutions and even more so for their comparison. Unambiguous requirements for the selection of solutions are expressed in the formulation of criteria optimal choice solutions.
Selection criteria supplement the formulation of goals with the conditions for their achievement, for example, in the minimum time, with the minimum expenditure of resources, etc. In simple tasks, when there is one goal and a formal model of the concept of goal and the criterion for their optimal achievement is usually combined into one concept, called objective function, performance criterion etc. Therefore, in such tasks, the concepts of goal and criterion are usually not singled out separately, but they are considered synonyms. In complex tasks characterized by many situations and goals, it is necessary to distinguish between these concepts, since they define different aspects of the task, namely, goals describe what should be achieved when solving the problem, and criteria - how this achievement should be carried out. In complex decision-making problems, there are many alternative ways and means to achieve goals. Selection criteria give the right or a set of rules for selecting the best ways and means.
For complex tasks, it is usually necessary to formulate many criteria for optimal achievement of goals. In this regard, the problem of their integration into a certain generalized criterion arises. In a number of cases, this problem can be solved by establishing a functional relationship between particular criteria. However, in the general case, it is not possible to construct such an objective dependence. Therefore, the task of integrating criteria into one generalized criterion has to be solved by decision makers based on logical thinking and intuition. Moreover, this integration is carried out in an implicit form. In this regard, the generalized criterion can be defined as the criterion of the most preferable achievement of goals. This definition has a broad meaning, which is not always possible to clearly specify in an explicit form. The decision maker himself decides what this definition means in a particular case and selects solutions.
Goals, constraints and criteria complement each other and can be used interchangeably. For example, the formulation of the goal is “to provide the national economy with such and such a type of product”; criterion - "while obtaining the maximum profit"; restrictions - "with a given investment" can be presented in a different form: goal - "to achieve maximum profit"; criterion - "by minimizing capital investments"; restriction - "when providing the national economy with this type of product."
Determination of goals, limitations and criteria requires highly qualified decision makers and experts. Experience shows that a clear formulation of the criteria and limitations of non-beating coins is carried out by the persons leading the solution of the problem, and requires the involvement of analysts. This is due to the influence of the traditional nature of thinking, the pressure of departmental interests.
After defining the goals, constraints and criteria, a set of solutions is generated. Particular attention should be paid to promoting as much as possible more fundamentally different solutions. To do this, it is advisable to use such forms of the method of expert assessments as the generation of ideas (brainstorming) and discussion. In a number of cases, an analysis of the principal options for decisions allows one or two of the most appropriate solutions to be selected. Further refinement of preferences may require the formation of calculated solutions and their analysis.
From a methodological point of view, when forming decisions, it is important to raise the following questions:
What do you need to know to solve the problem?
- What needs to be done to solve the problem?
- What needs to be organized to solve the problem?
The answer to the first question requires consideration of the informational and research aspects of the solution. The answer to the second question affects the design and technological side of the solution. The answer to the third question includes a complex of organizational and managerial aspects of the solution. Compilation of answers to these questions helps to detail the possible sides of the decision, and thereby contribute to the process of forming a plurality of decisions.
The formation of a set of solutions is a purely creative process, which is very difficult to regulate, and then more formalized. Therefore, in addition to the very general methodological provisions outlined above, it is not yet possible to make meaningful theoretical recommendations on the formation of a set of solutions. At present, the formation of goals, constraints, criteria and decisions is mainly the realm of logical thinking and intuition, so the only way to learn the rules for generating decisions is to use a precedent, i.e. consideration of practical examples, analysis of specific situations, conducting business games.
An example of a description of a problem situation
a) Inside the workshop there is a pneumatic transport with a pipe diameter of 300 mm, which periodically delivers powder and small plastic blanks to the workplace. The workshop was transferred to the production of new products, for the production of which it is also necessary to supply large workpieces with overall dimensions significantly exceeding the diameter of the pipeline.
b) It is necessary to provide a mechanized supply of large workpieces from the warehouse to the workplace.
c) Large workpieces cannot be delivered by pneumatic transport due to the small diameter of the pipes. There are no transport paths inside the workshop, which makes it difficult to use wheeled vehicles. There is no free space in the upper part for the installation and operation of crane equipment.
d) The solution of the problem will make it possible to eliminate the manual transportation of workpieces in this workshop and in other similar cases.
Operation 2. Description of the function (purpose) of the Technical object (TO). The description contains a clear and brief description technical means by which the need can be met. At the same time, it is recommended to give first a qualitative and then a quantitative description of the function that needs to be implemented using the developed technical object (TO) (or the need that needs to be satisfied). The table shows examples of function descriptions, where for each TO, a qualitative and then a quantitative description of functions is first given in the form of separate components a), b), c), which should be read as one sentence.
Function Description Examples
| Name of TO | Function Description | ||
| a) action | b) object | c) conditions | |
| 1. Pneumatic transport inside the workshop | transports | large blanks | between warehouses and workplaces |
| transports | large blanks with overall dimensions 420x275x350 mm | between warehouses and workplaces at a distance of up to 60 m | |
| 2. Household electric stove | heats up | container with liquid | to a boil |
| heats up | container with water up to 5 l | to boiling for no more than 20 minutes | |
| 3. Bearing | reduces | wheel torque | - |
| reduces | wheel torque | up to 2.9 N.m with a radial load of 7848 N and a speed of 130 rpm |
Operation 3. Selecting a prototype and compiling a list of requirements. In the description of a problem situation, a prototype is often indicated that needs to be improved. The prototype is often taken as a basis when looking for an improved solution. At the same time, it is recommended to choose 1-2 additional prototypes that have certain advantages compared to the original one. In this case, first of all, similar technical solutions are used in the leading class of the technical object of maintenance. The leading class of TO in comparison with the one under consideration has a similar function and a higher technical level. For example, aviation should be the leading class for a car, mechanical engineering for construction, and so on.
The list of basic requirements for the prototype is compiled based on the level of its description in the form of a list of requirements for the principle of operation or technical solution.
Each technical object must be submitted descriptions having hierarchical subordination. Descriptions are characterized by two properties:
1. each subsequent description is more detailed and characterizes the technical object more fully than the previous one;
An example of a description of a problem situation is a concept and types. Classification and features of the category "An example of a description of a problem situation" 2017, 2018.
The main questions of the topic:
1. The concept of a legal problem situation.
2. Identification and awareness of the legal problem situation.
3. Classification of legal problem situations.
4. Stages of identifying and understanding legal problem situations.
5. Legal tasks in professional activity
1. Legal problem situationis a set of circumstances that make it necessary to use certain legal means, to perform certain professional and managerial actions in order to achieve results that eliminate this problematic situation.
2. To identify a problematic situation means, after analyzing the real state of affairs, to assess the situation from the standpoint of the current legislation and established practice. The ability to identify legal problem situations is acquired in the process of regular performance of legal activities. These skills are formed on the basis of a broad knowledge of law and economics, as well as a deep knowledge of the branch of law in which the lawyer specializes.
Problem situations and their resolution are programmed by the professional duties of a lawyer and the position he occupies in the industrial or commercial fields. Participation of a lawyer in their identification, understanding and resolution is the main content of his professional activity. Awareness of problem situations forms the process of understanding the content and tasks of professional activity within the framework of the position.
Professional activity consists of a set typical and unexpected problematic situations.
Legal problem situations arise both in the activity individual lawyers, and in the activities of specialized departments and law enforcement structures with which the lawyer is obliged to interact in order to achieve the set goals.
3. Classification of legal problem situations:
· problematic situation of legal evaluation of facts.
Problematic situation of the organization of professional activity.
· the problematic situation of information and resource support.
Problematic situation of interaction with other officials and institutions.
problematic situation of control and adjustment of their actions.
4.Stages of identifying and understanding the problem situation:
Analysis of one's own professional duties;
analysis of the actual circumstances that are the object of the performance of professional duties;
Identification of issues requiring legal resolution;
Obtaining ideas about the required result of the activity;
The choice of possible methods, methods, techniques for the subsequent solution of this problem situation.
Identification and awareness of the problem situation means establishing answers to the questions:
· What do we have to do?
· Why?
· Who is interested in the development of events?
The complexity of the task is to identify latent (hidden) problem situations. This is necessary for the better performance of their professional duties, especially when the duties of a lawyer are defined quite broadly.
5. Legal task - this is a situation of a legal nature that requires a set of actions to obtain such quantitative and qualitative characteristics of the initial information about the object of knowledge, which, in turn, would allow obtaining new data about it and using them to achieve the truth in the ongoing legal research.
Legal tasksin professional activity are formed on the basis of identifying and understanding problem situations, analyzing the possibilities of legal resolution of the problem and represent a particular algorithm of activity, including:
ideas about the goals to be achieved;
ideas about how to achieve goals;
· ideas about the conditions for the implementation of this task.
Types of legal tasks:
· law enforcement - tasks associated with obtaining certain resources, searching for sources of legal and additional information necessary to achieve the goals set by legal means;
· law-making - tasks to create the necessary local regulations and documents to perform the tasks;
· enforcement - tasks for the selection, application and interpretation of specific legal norms in accordance with specific situations;
· law-organizing - tasks related to the organization of professional activities, security and guarantees safe execution official duties;
· legitimating - tasks related to the validity of the necessary proposed solutions, their legitimacy, efficiency and legality.
See also:
&Related Literature
1. Avdeev V.V. Psychotechnology for solving problem situations. M.: Felix, 1992.
2. Computer technologies in legal activity. Educational and practical guide: Pod. Ed. prof. N. Polevoy, Ph.D. V. Krylov. - M.: Publishing house BEK, 1994.
3. Kudryavtsev V. Legal situation and legal science. Moscow: Svobodnaya thought, 1994.
Approximate sequence
and the structure of the description of the problem situation
In social work under problem situation the contradiction between knowledge about the needs of people in specific practical or theoretical actions and ignorance of the ways and means of their implementation is understood. Solution - this is the acquisition of new knowledge or the creation of a theoretical model that explains the phenomenon, helps to identify factors that can influence the development of the phenomenon in the desired direction.
Since the time of studying the anomalies of social development, problem situations have been studied more carefully and more closely. The list of social problems is presented in the classic work of C. Booth. Analysis of the problem situation is aimed at classifying and describing problems as deviations from the standard of normality.
Therefore, one more definition of a problem situation may sound like this: this is a more or less intense discrepancy between individual or group expectations of the environment of life. At the same time, the boundary between the system of action and the environment is assumed “from the inside” and depends on the locus of control, for example, a problem situation may arise as a discrepancy between the requirements of the individual to himself.
Approximate structure of the problem situation:
1. In a problem situation, the problem is not presented in some specific form, which is chosen by the researcher. Most often, this situation consists of several problems in which it is necessary to highlight the basis or initial element. T.M. Dridze proposed the concept of "life situation" as a set of significant events and circumstances that affect the worldview and behavior in a certain period life cycle individual. A life situation becomes “problematic” only when the orderliness of the course of life is violated, and the need to solve a particular problem (or several problems at the same time) requires a person to have increased purposeful activity, the development of vital important decisions while creating a certain tension. Fundamental here is the circumstance that the problematic life situation covers all the significant problems of the individual and the living conditions that affect them.
2. After clarification and concretization of the problem, they move on to the symptoms of this problematic situation. Signs of the situation from the point of view of different specialists are interpreted in different ways.
3. The problem situation is characterized by uncertainty in its structure. This feature allows us to consider the problem from the point of view of various approaches and by various specialists. And the broader the overview of the problem, the more accurate its solution. The issue of the genesis of problem situations remains unclear - they can arise as a result of environmental degradation, but they can also be generated by the subject himself, being one of the consequences of anticipatory expectations and relative deprivation. Although problem situations vary in varying degrees of complexity, they are typical enough to be described using standard sets of variables. The concept of a problem situation also includes goal setting, an idea of the resources necessary to achieve the goal, and problem solving techniques.
4. The problematic situation manifests itself in the fact that the explanation and forecast of the state of the object becomes unsatisfactory and requires new solutions, energy and creative forces. The problematic situation is manifested in the fact that the existing methods of managing the object become inefficient.
5. A problematic situation is always associated with the object of study and is an impulse for the researcher's creative activity. The analysis of the problem situation consists in describing it with the position (approach) chosen by the researcher, choosing the appropriate methods of analysis and research. In accordance with this, the language for describing the problem situation is determined.
For example, a description of a problem situation might look like this:
Based on the description of the problem situation, it is necessary to describe the problem field. The researcher has to construct a "problem field" with the help of a special survey tool. Methodological difficulties in the study of problem situations are not limited to empirical data recording. It is necessary to develop a conceptual model of the problem situation as an object of study.
Analysis of the problem field will allow you to describe the problems and rank them.
Establish relationships between the symptoms of a problem situation and the problem field and argue them.
Social work is dominated by three main sociological paradigms: interactionalism, functionalism, conflict theory. In the description of the problem situation, each of them presents their concepts.
The interactionist paradigm sees social life as a process of interaction between individuals. The problem situation here is the interaction between people, therefore, the entire analysis will be based on this basis.
The functional paradigm (of social systems) focuses on the constitutional structure of social life: what are the components of society and how these components are related. Functionalism plays the role of "attachment" theories, allowing you to reduce all the variety of client cases to theories associated with the psychoanalytic and behavioral traditions.
The conflict paradigm describes social life as a struggle between competing individuals.
To describe the complete (complex) problematic situation, T.M. Dridze proposed three operating models.
2. Description of the problem situation
There are several technologies that allow a comprehensive analysis of the problem and its detailing. Basically, these technologies are used in solving problems facing a particular organization and consider it from the point of view of a system that has both internal problems and an external environment. For example, when analyzing complex problems and developing projects to eliminate them, a logical framework approach (LFA), which is also called target planning, is used. The LSP uses SWOT analysis technology. This is a fairly effective apparatus that allows you to take into account all aspects of the existing problem.
SWOT analysis is an assessment tool that analyzes an organization (problem) from four perspectives:
Strengths - internal positive qualities of the organization;
Weaknesses - internal negative features of the organization;
Opportunities are external factors that improve the organization's prospects;
Threats are external factors that can undermine the future success of an organization.
SWOT-analysis is carried out, as a rule, with the involvement of all interested parties. The results of this analysis are recorded in the form of a table consisting of four cells. Let's consider the above problem about the inefficiency of the activities of CJSC "AKSIT" (Table 1). The construction of such a table greatly facilitates the understanding of the problem and allows you to take into account all possible aspects when it is detailed. Such a representation is useful when building a tree of problems (goals), as it allows you to take into account the interests of all stakeholders.
2.1 SWOT-analysis of the activities of CJSC "AKSIT"
Table 1
| Strengths | Weak sides |
| 3. Ability to innovate | 4. High cost 5. Weak material base |
| Capabilities | Threats |
| 1. Income growth 2. The presence of unoccupied market segments |
But the most important effect is achieved when using the main SWOT analysis matrix. This matrix allows you to go directly from the first table, which describes the strengths and weaknesses of the organization and the influence of the external environment, to a set of activities that must be implemented when solving the problem. This matrix is useful for implementing the second stage of the system analysis logic - the choice of ways to achieve goals, i.e. determining a set of those works and activities, the implementation of which will contribute to solving the problem we are facing.
This matrix purposefully focuses on the generation of four types of mandatory activities (Table 2).
2.2 SWOT Analysis Matrix
table 2
| Strengths 1. Competitiveness in the market of such types of business as the production of finishing works and the production of parquet boards 2. High qualification of engineering and technical workers 3. Ability to innovate 4. Good reputation of the organization as an employer | Weak sides 1. Lack of an organization development strategy 2. The difficult financial condition of the organization 3. Non-competitiveness of such a type of business as the production of window blocks 4. High cost 5. Weak material base 6. Unsatisfactory relationships with subcontractors 7. Increasing dependence on debt capital |
|
| Capabilities 1. Income growth. 2. The presence of unoccupied market segments. | Activities that need to be done in order to use strengths to increase the possibilities: 1. Entry into new market segments with such types of production as finishing works and production of parquet boards. 2. Expand the production of finishing works and parquet boards. 3. Due to the high qualification of engineering and technical workers and the ability to innovate, expand the range of services provided. 4. Due to the good reputation of the organization as an employer, organize the recruitment of highly qualified workers, which will expand the production line | Activities that need to be carried out, overcoming weaknesses, using the opportunities provided: 1. Increasing the range of products and entering new markets will increase the profit of the enterprise, and therefore improve its financial condition. 2. Reduce the production of non-competitive products. 3. By expanding the production line, reduce costs due to the scale of production. 4. Strengthen the material base of the enterprise |
| 1. Possibility of new competitors 2. Changing needs and tastes of consumers 3. Increase in non-payments between enterprises | Activities that use the strengths of the organization to avoid threats: 1. Increasing the output of competitive products will prevent the emergence of new competitors. 3. Develop a system of settlement with consumers using a system of discounts. | Activities that minimize weaknesses to avoid threats: 1. Reducing production costs 2. Conclusion of permanent contracts with suppliers 3. Reducing dependence on debt capital by reinvesting profits 4. Strengthening the material base of the enterprise |
When making a decision, it is necessary to use the division of factors into internal and external, managed and unmanaged. This distinction can be made using the classification matrix (Table 3)
2.3 Matrix of classification of factors of a problem situation
Table 3
| Managed | Unmanaged | |
| External | 1. Unsatisfactory relations with subcontractors. 2. Increasing dependence on borrowed capital. | 1. Competitiveness in the market of such types of business as the production of finishing works and the production of finishing boards. 2. Market growth. 3. Increasing competitive pressure. 4. Changing needs and tastes of consumers. |
| Internal | 1. High qualification of engineering and technical workers. 2. Ability to innovate. 3. Good reputation of the organization as an employer. Increasing the range of goods and services provided Entering new market segments. Production line extension Lack of an organization development strategy. The difficult financial condition of the organization. | |
| The lack of competitiveness of such a type of business as the production of window blocks. High cost. Weak material base. |
At the stage of thinking through existing problems, it is necessary to divide the problems into parts, highlight the main and secondary characteristics of the problem, establish cause-and-effect relationships for all possible options for solving the problem, and also develop recommendations for action. This information is required in order to establish a specific list of factors that caused the problem, for this it is necessary to build a "Problem Tree" (Fig. 1)
Picture 1
The main tasks of system analysis are the definition and detailing of the goals and ways to achieve them into constituent elements, identifying the relationships existing between them, providing a certain logic for solving the problem that has arisen (goals - ways to achieve goals - resources). The application of the structuring method contributes to the solution of these tasks. The structurization method is based on the division of the problem under study into constituent elements with a possible subsequent numerical assessment of their relative importance. This procedure is often referred to as building a goal tree (Figure 2). One of the main tasks of building a goal tree is to establish a complete set of elements at each level and determine the relationship and subordination between them (qualitative aspect). Another task is the subsequent determination of the coefficient of relative importance (RCF) of the elements of each level of the goal tree (quantitative aspect).
Figure 2
Since the main problem for CJSC "AKSIT" is the limited financial resources, it is necessary to rank the proposed activities. To do this, we use expert evaluation methods.
Practical experience in the use of systems analysis methods has shown that preference, where possible, should be given to fairly simple methods. This provision also applies to expert methods.
Expert methods are widely used in determining relative importance coefficients (RCs) in relationship trees and, in general, when it is necessary to select only essential, most important ones from the specified set of properties and relationships. We also have to resort to the help of experts in order to rank the properties and relationships under consideration, but in terms of their importance and materiality.
It should be noted that when analyzing complex systems, some of the essential properties and relationships either do not allow a quantitative description at all, or it is not possible to obtain quantitative data about them at the given moment in time. Therefore, in these cases it is necessary, with the help of experts, to obtain qualitative information based on the experience and intuition of specialists. Such qualitative assessments are called expert assessments.
For the rational use of information received from experts, it is necessary to transform it into a form convenient for further analysis. The possibilities of formalizing information depend on the characteristics of the object of analysis, the reliability and completeness of the available data.
It is important for the formalization of information that the expert has a system of preferences, which means the expert's ability to compare and evaluate the possible values of the features of the object of analysis by assigning a certain number to each feature. Depending on the scale on which these preferences are set, expert assessments contain more or less information.
The most common in the practice of expert assessments are questionnaire methods and methods of group examination. In questionnaire methods, depending on the scale used, the ranking method (rank scale) and normalized (interval scale) are distinguished. In this work, the ranking method will be used.
ranking method. The most common of the questionnaire methods are ranking and normalization. The ranking method consists in the fact that the expert is invited to assign numerical ranks to each of the factors given in the questionnaire. A rank equal to one is assigned to the most important factor, according to the expert, a rank equal to two is assigned to the next most important factor, etc. Consider the application of expert methods to solve our problem.
The experts were asked to rank the proposed activities and rank them from 1 to 12. The survey matrix is shown in Table 4.